Same net-new every month - the only difference is retention and expansion. Set your numbers and watch the gap open: the gray line is bookings alone, the cyan line is the same bookings with your retention working on top.
Expansion now drives about 40% of new-ARR growth for scaling SaaS, up from roughly 30% in 2021. Recurring revenue compounds after the close, which is the whole premise of Winning by Design’s Bow Tie model.
| Quarter | Net-new only | With expansion | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $8,450,000 | $8,646,507 | $196,507 |
| Q2 | $8,900,000 | $9,308,605 | $408,605 |
| Q3 | $9,350,000 | $9,986,667 | $636,667 |
| Q4 | $9,800,000 | $10,681,080 | $881,080 |
| Q5 | $10,250,000 | $11,392,239 | $1,142,239 |
| Q6 | $10,700,000 | $12,120,545 | $1,420,545 |
| Q7 | $11,150,000 | $12,866,414 | $1,716,414 |
| Q8 | $11,600,000 | $13,630,269 | $2,030,269 |
The same math runs across your channel mix. A YouTube engine feeds organic and search. Organic feeds paid efficiency. All of it feeds GEO, and GEO feeds them back. Channels run separately add. Channels run as one system multiply. Toggle a channel off and watch what it costs the others.
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